3D: Develop, Diversify, Disrupt

It happened, it actually happened.

Three-dimensional printing has been talked about for well over a decade now.  At first, you could only make parts with special resins, at slow speeds.  Not too impressive.  It was high-tech enough to make plastic parts, in custom and unusual shapes, but not exactly Earth-shattering and transformative.  Most people’s first experience with a 3D-printed part was, in a word, trinkets.  Thus, a bald eagle who lost a beak to an illegal gunshot could receive a prosthetic beak in nylon.  The technology allowed bird specialists, in combination with 3D shape modeling, to produce a beak extension with an exact fit.  Still, bird beaks aren’t exactly Iron Man 4.

Okay, how about Iron Man 0: Powder-Metal Prequel?  Newer printers didn’t use polymer resins: parts were actually made by fusing grains of metal.  The resulting part was still somewhat brittle, due to incomplete fusion and tiny pores.  However, the printers and their parts are now good enough for… a gun.  One enthusiast publicly reports using his home printer to make major parts for a working rifle.  Using plans downloaded from the Internet.

Let that sink in, readers: Man Home-Prints Gun.  Caveats apply, of course: First, the long-term durability (or even medium-term) is questionable.  He reports firing one round just fine, which is expectable.  But second and further shots are, by his own admission, risky.  Also, several key parts were made with old, slow, expensive processes.  So the near-term implications are slight.

The long-term implications, of course, are huge.  Assuming 3D printing keeps getting better and cheaper (and why wouldn’t it?), firearms would then join marijuana and alcohol in the “unbannable” category.  Any handy person can throw grain and yeast in a tank, thus, Prohibition was a losing game, and got repealed.  On the other hand, if individuals can source their own products instead of purchasing from factories, numerous arguments from the gun lobby are then obsolete.  In other words, the field is transformed by a new technology being introduced, and all players will scramble for new stances.

Oh, and then there’s Iron Man 2.  The first (mostly) 3D-printed race car has finished races in Britain and Germany… and it’s an electric.  The racer is capable of 88 mph, and 3D printing was used to form complex cooling ducts.  By using even newer printer technologies, the porosity and brittleness are less and less of an issue.  And additive manufacturing is more and more transformative.

Can YOUR job be replaced by someone programming a 3D printer?  Do YOU need to learn 3D programming?

Charging, Part Two

See also Part One: Level 1 and 2 (and more) Outlets

Okay, so there are options in vehicle charging.  Cheap Level 1 installations, and faster, smarter Level 2 installations (and ones in between).  Now, where do I find these charging options, to make an electric vehicle handy?  They’re much smaller than gas pumps, so it’s not obvious if you haven’t been looking.

Quick answer: your home, for one.  Since personal road vehicles spend the majority of their lives sitting, doing nothing, that’s a natural time to spend charging.  Certainly, if you’re spending that time doing nothing but sleeping, then you’re not on public roads, I hope.  So, run a cord out to the vehicle (even if you live in many townhouses, brownstones, or apartments near ground).  Level 1 charging from a standard home outlet is good enough for a surprisingly large fraction of people, since a surprisingly large fraction goes short enough in a typical day.  If you didn’t completely discharge the pack, your sleep and the vehicle’s charge line up quite well.  If you want a little more comfort margin, then a dryer or range outlet’s higher voltage and current can be applied to some vehicles with adapters.

Not-as-quick answer: there’s an app for that.

www.plugshare.com

carstations.com

www.recargo.com

…and both Nissan (CarWings) and Ford (MyFord) have their own software offerings.  It’s a good idea to check more than one listing, just in case.  However, this is less of a hassle than it sounds, since the majority of people drive in a “home territory” a majority of the time.  After the first time or two, you just know.

However, that leads me to the “out of territory” exception: what if you have to make a trip?  For a reasonable trip, Level 2 charging can be combined with your work hours, an appointment, a meal, or a plan such as a mall visit or a movie.  Plenty of places now offer public charging:

The Big Ones

–Nissan dealerships.  To promote the Nissan Leaf, most if not all dealers serve as Level 2 charging points, and free ones at that.  Some may get touchy about non-Nissans, but most haven’t, so far.  Some may lock up after business hours, hence you should check an app or try the manager if you have no alternative stations.  To a lesser extent, some Chevy and Mitsubishi dealers are also equipped with Level 2s.

–Walgreens drugstores.  As a chain, Walgreens has taken it upon themselves- chargers have rolled out nationwide.  Note, however, that the chargers are run by a contractor, who usually charges some fee.  Individual stores also have individual policies on parking spaces.

–Cracker Barrel restaurant/stores.  That’s right, Cracker Barrel.  Locations are usually along highways, and used to have gas pumps.  Now they have chargers, possibly Level 3 (see below).  This is especially true in Tennessee.  That’s right, Tennessee- home of a Nissan plant, and the TVA.

–Ikea stores.  Like Walgreens, the chain policy is some form of charging, even if it’s Level 1.  Since people spend hours there, you might as well feed your battery as well as your family.

–Kohl’s department stores.  Not every store has chargers, but every store makes sense, at least as much as Walgreens.  There are also select Meijer and Macy’s locations with chargers.

–Whole Foods groceries.  Again, not every location.  But Whole Foods was one of the first, installing chargers back in 2010.  Other grocers include some Kroger, Publix, and WalMart/Sam’s Club stores.

Not-So-Big Ones

Lesser rollouts include the odd Best Buy and Lowe’s big-box retailers, occasional 7-Eleven and Kwik Trip stores, and at least one Muvico theater.  Restaurant chains include some McDonald’s (Cary, NC; Huntington, WV; Antioch, CA; Hillsboro, OR; and Gallatin, TN that I know of) some Panera Bread restaurants, and at least one Wendy’s.  There are stations in civic parking lots, and the public lots of many train stations.  These are all chains, mind you- there are also individual restaurants along…

THE REAL BIG ONE

Interstate 5 (from Canada past Vancouver, to Mexico) is the West Coast Green Highway.  At numerous points, you’ll find Level 1, 2, and 3 chargers.  Sure, there are still gaps in the quieter parts of California.  But Oregon even has stations on highways branching off of I-5.  Oregon’s I-5 stations are so numerous, if one charger’s taken or broken, you just go to the next.

A fair number of these WCGH chargers are Level 3- direct-current, high-voltage, super-fast chargers.  (Also known as quick chargers or DCQC.)  When I say fast, I mean “mostly recharged in under 30 minutes” fast.  Right now, the only ones available conform to the “CHAdeMO” specification, agreed upon by Nissan, Mitsubishi, Subaru, and their suppliers.  But there are competing Level 3 specifications, from a US-German consortium of automakers (“combo plug”) and one lone EV company, Tesla’s SuperCharger.  As format wars go, this auto war could turn out to be The Big One…

Charging, Part One

Speaking of roadside stations… Before I can describe charging my motorcycle, I have to describe charging in general.  How does one juice up something big and mobile?

I’ll point out immediately that RV parks and marinas solved this problem decades ago (plus the owners of electric forklifts, more recently).  If you want to run something bigger than a lamp or hair dryer, you might want some plug bigger than that.  And as your plug (and its current) gets bigger, you might want voltages higher than 120V.  Fortunately, a surprising number of people rarely need bigger than that.

The “normal” plug is officially NEMA 5-15,  a standard from the National Electrical Manufacturers’s Association.  It’s rated for 110-125 volts, 15 amps in North America.  This, then, is defined as “Level 1” charging.  It has a ground pin; if you’re plugging into a GFCI outlet (or “receptacle,” officially) you can plug it in outside or in the rain and not shock yourself.  Some quick math shows that a reasonable 10-amp draw at 120V is 1.2 kilowatts.

Next up from NEMA 5-15 are the 120V plugs for RVs, and 240V plugs for electric dryers, ranges, and RVs.  For years, homebuilders charged their vehicles with dryer plugs, since dryers are often in or near the garage or driveway.  Thus, you may still find kits and adapters to NEMA 10-30 (dryers before 1996), 14-30 (after 1996), 14-50 (electric ranges), and the RV standards (often L6-20, sometimes others).  Even at the same 120V, the higher current can charge batteries faster.

Still, these were not meant for ordinary motorists at high-traffic stations.  “Level 2” plugs (officially, SAE J1772, from the Society of Automotive Engineers) are 240V, and commonly carry 20-30 amps and up, all the way to 80 amps.  The big difference is that J1772 is a smart connector.  The wall side is not energized, until it communicates with the vehicle side.  The vehicle can request a certain amperage, and only upon a successful link (a “handshake” in the electronics world) will the wall side begin to carry current.  This lets you hook up safely in the rain, or even in drizzle, road spray, heavy fog, etc.  Communications also include a “don’t drive off” lockout for the engine computer, and an “I’m full” command to the wall.  This lets a network-connected station send you a text or e-mail when you’re ready, or even a message if you’ve been unplugged by someone.  You can also tally your usage with meter readings, if you’re into that.

On a more basic level, the J1772 plug is physically durable.  It’s been designed to last for thousands of plug/unplug cycles, you can run it over, etc.  At 20-30 amps, you’ll charge at 3.3 to 7 kilowatts- much faster than household 120V.  The downside is that J1772 charge points- even for homeowners- cost a minimum of several hundred dollars.  Fully weatherized, vandal-resistant stations are thousands of dollars at present, before internet fees.

Public Level 2 station (J1772). Many ChargePoint units also have a Level 1, under door marked “1.”

J1772 has the backing of SAE, DOE, automakers, etc. and is thus the most common station… on public roads.  There are many times more NEMA 5-15 receptacles that were meant for yard work, maintenance crews and contractors, signs and displays, holiday lights, etc.  Other electric motorists have noted that stores and restaurants will usually let you charge off their 5-15s if you’re a customer, and ask nicely.  Particularly if you explain just how little an hour of electricity costs, through a 5-15.  One EV driver I know has even knocked on doors in residential neighborhoods.  He’s found that he only needs to try a few houses before someone answers, with a yes.

There’s also the question of recharge time.  Do you even need a Level 2 in your driveway?  A large fraction of personal EV owners- maybe even a majority- are saying no.  Home recharging takes place overnight; given eight to twelve hours, Level 1 is plenty for day-to-day.  Average people drive 25-50 miles in an average day, and thus, many modern EVs aren’t even close to empty.  (If you actually discharge your battery that far on most days, you planned poorly.)  If you’re an average person, and you check your plan carefully, you can come home to a regular, dumb, cheap 120V outlet.  You can still upgrade later, even if it’s just to your existing dryer socket.

Faster charging is more important on the road, when you’re trying to fit it into a store visit, professional appointment, meal time, rest stop, etc.  I’ll fit in even faster Level 3 charging stations in the next Part.

The Myth of Disruptive (Reprovisioning) Technologies

I had laid down a massive stinker: new technologies rarely kill off the old technologies, at least not soon.  I then clarified that in the context of solar power vs. existing energy.  Now, I will explain the statement:

-Electrics will not force gas stations from the map, and I don’t mean electric stations either… some form of chemical, combustible fuel will survive for decades, even if it’s in the form of hybrids.

Folks, I give to you Exhibit A… and B.  The coming Peugeot Hybrid4 and Land Rover diesel-electric hybrids.

Many groups have been experimenting with diesel-electric road vehicles.  There’s Ford, Volkswagen, Audi, and Volvo, experiments by UPS and FedEx, and Japanese maker Hino in cargo vans, plus more hybrid buses than I can count.  Let’s add, of course, about a century of diesel-electric locomotives, submarines, and surface ships.  More recently, the US Army and other DoD offices have demo’d land hybrids for their “stealth” mode and their logistical savings.

There are reasons not to hybridize a diesel engine, though.  Diesels lack throttle plates and their associated pumping losses.  It is this loss which electric hybridization helps cut.  Economically, a diesel costs more than an equivalent gasoline engine already; hybridizing a diesel then makes you less competitive twice, without being more efficient twice.

And yet, two companies are now going for it.  They’ve apparently found something I haven’t- perhaps the lower prices for diesel fuel in much of Europe, and wider availability of pumps, qualified technicians, and parts suppliers.  Note that the new Land Rover hybrid will not be shipped across to the US (yet…), while Peugeot does not sell here at all.

Purists will decry compromise, as purists do.  But as much as battery-electric vehicles can actually do, they exist only in a few segments of the road-vehicle cosmos.  The fact that electrification of SUVs is continuing shows more progress and even more viability.  Note, for example, that Land Rover claims hybridization did not affect their vehicle’s stream-fording and rock-scrambling capabilities.  The stream depth appears to have increased.  If electrification actually works, then we should see these SUVs whether you like it or not.  Apparently, it works.

And such is compromise and progress.  Service stations will continue to have diesel pumps for a long time, if only for diesel-electric hybrids.  Plug-in hybrids will occasionally fire up the fuel engine.  High-compression pistons will draw ethanol or methanol blends, while fuel-cell hybrids will draw natural gas, methanol, or butane… from service stations that will still look like today’s.

Edit: For those of you who think the coming Land Rover isn’t a “real” offroader, because it’s too snooty or expensive or whatever, I give to you Exhibits C and D: the Mitsubishi Outlander Hybrid and the Toyota RAV4 EV.  Yup, too snooty, that Mitsu.  No cred, anywhere, with them Toyotas.

Bike CVT: Derailleurs not derailed

It has been brought to my attention that the bicycle has another, new transmission option: the CVT.

The NuVinci gearshift looks like a hub gear, with a command cable coming out one side to the shifter.  Except, you can dial the analog shifter at will, for stepless changes.  And?

Well, there’s the and.  CVTs aren’t really transformative transmissions, at least in the bicycle world.  Human legs have a narrow powerband, sure.  But they can pause and “reengage” at will, with only a loss of concentration, not efficiency, really.  The NuVinci does not weigh less, nor does it save much in friction losses.  It’s more weatherized, but so were hub gears.  So far, it doesn’t span a huge range, which would at least appeal to downhillers.

The target market, then, is utility bikes (in-town or commuting vehicles).  Except, these riders also want a cheap bike, and something with “elastohydrodynamic fluid” (the special grease needed to drive the system) isn’t rock bottom, or anywhere near.  Of course, let’s not have tunnel vision.  The target market is ultimately anyone who will pay the company, including automakers with advanced alternators, variable superchargers, or simply small, advanced hatches.

Should the technology be mass-produced for multiple markets, then bicycle applications will eventually be cheap enough to compete in that market.  Otherwise, I see no leapfrogging or even upheaval.  Heck, people have taken to singlespeeds and related urban bikes.  For the industry, that’s a mindshare and business upheaval if not a technological one (or even anti-technological).

Brammo Update: Milk Deliveries?

September 2012: Here’s what we knew so far.

–Brammo successfully sells Enertia electric motorcycles.  In 2010, they announce their follow-ons, the updated Enertia Plus, and the new, longer-ranging, much faster Empulse.  Three states of trim (Empulse 6.0, 8.0, and 10) will be available from $10-14k, in 2011.

-Early 2011: Brammo pushes date to sometime in 2012, supposedly due to addition of 6-speed gearbox, from previous direct drive.  Other mods too, of course.

-Early 2012: Announcement announced.  Details will be revealed in a ‘premiere’ May 8, with the company promising “great financing.”  Uh-oh.

-May 8 event: Lots of show, lots of sparkle… and the 6.0 and 8.0 are gone completely.  Empulse R (higher trim level) will be available August, for $19k, after initial, reviewer units are built in July and in the hands of media.  The base Empulse at $17k will be available in 2013.

As you can imagine, a lot of people are not happy.  Reviews of either Empulse did not publish in July… but did appear before August was out.  Wired, Jalopnik, and Hell for Leather did at least a first impression of working, streetable units.  So that’s halfway there.

September 1: I get a notice from Brammo, asking me to confirm my pre-order.  That’s… still not completely there, considering that I would have ordered the base Empulse.  The base model might still be significantly delayed.  Though since the Empulse R is at least on public roads (plus track-only units), the odds of either product turning out to be vaporware are now quite slim.

The odds of them not being the Empulse 6.0, 8.0, and 10, at $10-14k, however, are 1 in 1.  Oh, and still wondering about that Enertia Plus.

Whole Lada work to do

-See also Lada work to do and Lada work to do 2

Not only are Russian minds moving on electric vehicles, but Croatian players are in process:

Croatian Car Show Features First Electric Cars

Lake Jarun show (metro Zagreb) will exhibit Rimac C1 super car and Doking subcompact.

If we don’t lead, we will be led.  There are plenty of smart people around the world ready and waiting for us to drop the ball.

Nothing But Zero, Pt. II

-See also Pt. I- Ergonomics, and Ear-gonomics

So lately I’ve been doing everything (road-wise) on a 2012 Zero S.  More thoughts:

3. Transmission

Ergonomics becomes an issue the moment you get on, and shove off.  Next comes the transmission.  The Zero S, like every electric moto so far, has direct drive: one speed, and no clutch.  Natural response: isn’t that weird for a motorcycle?  Is it like an automatic in a car?

Well, it sure felt that way at first.  The first time I ever rode off, I itched for an invisible clutch lever, and pawed for a phantom shifter.  Shifting and clutchwork are so ingrained into the existing motorcyclist’s mind that it’s (heh, heh) automatic.  If you, as a car driver, don’t get it, it’s because you (as my stick friends say) have spent all this time steering, not driving.

Of course, cars have “prundle.”  Before you can pull away in a gasser car, you have to actively fire up the ‘banger, actively engage a gear, and possibly actively release a parking brake.  This keeps you from certain types of low-speed accidents.  Other than the kickstand, this hardly exists in the moto world.  Combined with silent “idling,” it’s very possible for a person to not realize an electric bike is powered, and accidentally shoot off.  The Zero still has a kill switch on the bars, like many gassers.  The owner’s manual encourages its use to prevent unintended take-off.  Unlike a gasser, there’s a huge, green “power” lamp at the top of the gauges.  This is as in-your-face as it can get, to remind you that yes, this thing’s on.

Another thing that helps is that the grip encoder (“throttle” in the gas world) and its control laws are well done.  There’s a dead space once you start to turn the grip, before you actually move.  Then when you turn it a little more, there’s a “stealth of stealth” range.  It makes the bike really handy for gliding in parking lots, stop-and-go traffic and drive-thrus, parades, etc.  Only after deliberate twisting do you actually pull forward with real force.  With a multispeed, you do these fine adjustments by holding a low, even throttle, then slipping the clutch to control acceleration.  Here, you always let one hand have direct control- far more intuitive.

Levers or no levers, I got it.  Got it within a ride or two.  Ingrained or not, I adapted quickly.  People with manual cars can borrow your automatic just fine, even if you can’t borrow their stick.  People with scooter experience can similarly get on a direct-drive moto.

There was one near-incident, though.  When I got to my first red light, I had the urge to “rev the engine,” existing or not.  Fortunately, I stopped myself when I felt the rear tire grip; I didn’t launch myself into cross traffic.

4.  Scram-mission

Okay, once you know how to launch the thing… how does it launch?  People had warned that direct drive, with one wide gear, doesn’t make the best use of motor torque for launching.  One of the joys of motorcycling (and even many scooters) is a great acceleration due to low weight, which you typically experience by blasting away from everyone else when lights turn green.  (By comparison, cages, with their bulk, need low first gears to get out of their own way.)

I’m happy to report that the Zero S can blast just fine- not like an automatic in a car.  Sure, a dedicated low gear would make it blast better still.  But as is, I can peel away from a stop and leave normal traffic behind.  Electric motors give high torque over a broad rev range, and this motor is no exception.  Combined with a weight of only 300 pounds, one ratio does it for me.  But if you want two votes of confidence, notice the Sport/Eco switch:

Sport versus Eco primarily adds regenerative braking.  This simulates engine braking on a gasser, and recovers energy that would instead go to heating the pads and disc.  Eco also reduces commanded energies: torque goes from a bit over 40 ft-lbs (measured, not claimed), to a bit under 30.  And yet, in Eco, I can still leave normal traffic in the mirrors; I just have to pin it.  Sport just makes it easy.  Essentially, it’s a “transmission” in software- and even the “wrong” gear still works fine.

Notice I said “normal traffic.”  If someone really feels like mixing it up, or is in a real sports car (not an econobox with bodywork), then all bets are off.  But that has never happened so far.  I stay in the flow of street traffic as I feel, and if I feel I can flow past.

Notice I said “street traffic.”  What about interstates?  Answer: I dunno.  If I’m on an interstate, it’s because I have somewhere to be.  I don’t go on highways to ride like flies around livestock.  I pick a lane, and add the miles I need to add.  If you’re looking for a hobby to be a d-bag in public, risking bystanders as well as yourself, then don’t ask my advice.

Lada work to do 2

I mentioned AvtoVAZ’s Electric Lada previously.  Didn’t do it justice: what’s the deeper significance?

Russia is hardly a beckoning market for electric vehicles.  First, cold weather is unkind to battery chemistries.  What’s colder than Russia?  On a more personal level, the competition for the Russian consumer is much cheaper than we have in the West.  Producing a vehicle with high upfront costs is risky, even if it lowers recurring costs.

Second, are those recurring costs lower?  Russia is an oil-rich area- certainly a major exporter, if not the largest source outside of OPEC.  Then, let’s look at the bigger picture: Russia is a gas-rich area, arguably the supplier for much of Europe.

With all this talk of abundant natural gas, there’s talk of putting it in cars.  I’ve seen NG cars and trucks from multiple manufacturer; I’ve ridden in NG cars and heavy vehicles.  Note, however, I separate cars from heavier road vehicles- they are separate.  Heavy commercial vehicles, particularly in fleets, work well on natural gas.  There are large spaces with room for bulky, high-pressure gas cylinders.  The fleet operator can also justify a centralized, high-pressure natural-gas station, which is more expensive than a gasoline or diesel pump, itself more than some electrical hookups.

Cars and other compact vehicles, on the other hand, have customized tanks, to store liquid fuel in nooks and crannies.  As a chemical, natural gas gives less range than liquids.  Going to cylindrical shapes needed to contain high pressures cuts ranges even further.  And this is all with the same thermal inefficiencies and drivetrain losses that don’t exist with electrics.  These losses won’t go away without natural-gas fuel cells, which aren’t ready for the road, and will still create electric-battery and motor demand.

The existence proof of Russian EVs is a clear admission: electrification of drivetrains in some form is too compelling.  Even those Russians are doing it.

The Myth of Disruptive (Power) Technologies

I’ve thrown out a complex and controversial post on the advance of technologies (or not), with the promise of going into detail later.  Better elaborate before people get worked up:

I claimed “Cheapening solar power will not sweep away all, most, or even some competing power sources.”  Both George W. Bush and Ray Kurzweil anticipate that due to the march of technology, solar power will reach crossover (cost-competitiveness with fossil power) somewhere around 2015.  While the adoption of solar power will create benefits, older forms of energy will go on for some time, for reasons that will go on for some time.  Thus, 2015 (if that is, indeed, the year) will not be as earth-shattering as it seems.

–Financing.  Buying a solar-power system is like pre-paying your electric bill… for decades to come.  If you can’t lick that monthly envelope without first checking your account balance, how will you mail 300 months’ worth?

You take out a loan, that’s how.  Every solar installer has some creditors available as part of the package.  Paying back that loan is then similar to bills from the electric company, but cheaper.  Alternative financing methods include rental and leasing.  The power utility or a solar company still owns the panels on your roof, then sends you a smaller monthly bill than you’d have paid with no panels.

Even though homeowners’ electric bills are considered a decent risk, we’re still in an era of tight financing.  (At least, compared to 2006/2007- everything else is tight credit by comparison.)  Besides the technological innovations in advanced photovoltaic cells, we’ll also need more financing models from more lenders, more often.  This has absolutely nothing to do with solar-cell technology, or any other technologies.

–Secondary and Indirect Panel and System Costs.  The numerous and latest advances in solar cells are just that- in the cells.  Unless you’re running a watch or calculator, you’ll need to connect the cells into strings.  And the strings into arrays.  Then seal the arrays into weatherproof panels.  Then mount the panels on your property.  Then hook the cables into your breakers, without shorts or rain leaks or other hazards.  The cell costs are falling, but we are now at a point where the remaining costs-not falling anywhere near as fast- are as much as the cells and strings.

In other words, solar vendors must still pay for installer and electrician time, and clunking across strange rooftops and into strange basement wiring ain’t cheap.  Unlike cell technologies, these costs probably won’t have a eureka moment from some scientist.

For example, some electric utilities are demanding a solar-cutoff switch in your residence.  Since the utility reserves the right to cut your supply, they need to send an employee to your place, whether you cooperate or not.  With no cutoff switch, your breakers might still carry lethal current from the panels, even if the company has already stopped transmitting.  Thus, the utility employee’s life might become a conflict of interest for you; the utility simply won’t accept that.  A standardized cutoff switch, then, becomes an additional cost of doing business for having both solar and grid power.  This cost simply did not exist when you just supped off the utility teat like everyone else.

(This is doubly so for solar-thermal power.  Solar thermal is less likely to have a eureka moment, and thus pay for its mundane aspects.)

–Secondary and Indirect Grid Costs.  Our electrical grid dates back anywhere from the ’90s to the ’40s, depending on location.  It’s still set up in a client/server model, to borrow a computer term.  Solar power, on the other hand, is more peer-to-peer.  Some customers will have their own panels, while some localities will have big panel farms helping supply the whole area.  Both will be smaller than the existing fossil or nuclear plants, which are highly centralized, and help supply multiple states.  Estimates of the  grid repairs and modifications necessary for more-localized power are many billions of dollars; the ARRA (“stimulus package”) contributed a few billion, with private industry contributing not even two.

As long as solar power is a small fraction of our generating capacity, the client/server grid will hold.  Before solar power grows large enough to displace other sources, someone’s got to pay the grid costs.  No one wants to.  More likely, true crossover will not be in 2015 or 2016, since the bill for grid work will eat up a fraction of the gross cost savings from future solar.  Net savings will then begin some other year.

. . .

Again, I don’t take this as pessimism, or solar-bashing, and I hope you don’t either.  I have a shiny MP3 player, and yet there are still CDs and records knocking around the place.  Sure, a well-ripped, high-rate MP3 blows away the old formats in listening experience.  But I simply can’t rip box after box of my old albums, and don’t want to toss hard copies and liner notes- the gross ownership experience is more evenly matched.  But that, too doesn’t mean MP3s have somehow failed, and should be bashed by future-haters.